In the third and final installment of my fantasy golf sleepers series, I’ll take a look at a handful of players who are PGA Tour regulars that have a chance to exceed their perceived value – whether in a fantasy or rotisserie draft league or in a salary cap-style online league.
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out Part I and Part II, which dealt with deeper sleepers who weren’t on the PGA Tour a year ago.
Camilo Villegas
With his long, curly locks, tight-fitting pants, white belt, and dramatic flair, Villegas has already captured the attention of the metrosexuals at GQ and the hearts of teenaged girls everywhere, but he has yet to truly prove himself on the golf course. Statistically, he’s been nothing special over his first two seasons on Tour, but it’s Camilo’s late-season 2007 run that has me excited about him in 2008. After a typically inconsistent half-year (dotted with a runner-up finish at the Honda Classic in March, a T3 at the AT&T in May, and absolutely nothing in between), however, Camilo appeared to put it together late in the year. Starting with the Canadian Open in July, Villegas caught fire. He didn’t drop out of the top 25 in his final six events, a span that also saw him log four top-10 finishes – including three in a row during the FedEx Cup playoffs. He kept the momentum going with a victory in September at the Tokai Classic on the Japan Golf Tour, which should give him loads of confidence heading into 2008. Villegas has already come close to winning on the PGA circuit several times (he has three runner-up finishes and two thirds in his two pro seasons), and it says here he wins at least once while establishing himself as a star on Tour this season.
Anthony Kim
Despite being the youngest rookie on Tour at age 22, carding four top-10 finishes, 10 top 25s, and earning over $1.5 million in cash, Kim was a mild disappointment a year ago. That’s probably being tough on the youngster, but Kim came out of Oklahoma with three-time All America credentials and made an immediate impact late in 2006 by tying for second in his first professional tournament, so expectations were sky high. Sleeper-seeking owners might have expected a win a year ago, which Kim obviously didn’t deliver, but behind the so-so results was a very effective season for the rookie. Granted, all four of his top 10s came before the Players Championship, but Anthony missed the cut just twice in his final 13 events and, more impressively, finished 13th on Tour in Birdie Average, 28th in Scoring, 29th in Total Driving, and 15th in the All-Around Ranking. Basically, his underlying play was far better than his results. I fully expect that to change in Year 2, and it wouldn’t shock me if Kim won a couple of times this season.
Ryan Moore
I simply can’t stop backing Moore. I’ve been on him like stink on a monkey ever since he came out of UNLV three years ago as the most decorated amateur player since Tiger fist-pumped his way onto the Tour in 1996. Since turning pro after the U.S. Open in 2005, we’ve seen only flashes of the talent everyone agrees Moore possesses. All that remains is for him to put it all together on a more consistent level, which I clearly believe will happen this season. Put it this way – Moore is going to explode at some point or another, and I want him on my fantasy squad when it happens. Now, about that goofy, trendy cap…
Jeff Overton
In 2004, a relatively unknown player finished first in the PGA Tour’s All-Around Ranking – which is a combination of several other statistical categories that measures, as the name would indicate, a player’s all-around skill. Said player earned just four top-10 finishes and finished a distant 61st on the money list. The following season, he won his first PGA Tour en route to earning nearly $2 million. The year after that, Geoff Ogilvy won the Accenture Match Play title before taking the U.S. Open in dramatic fashion. While I’ll stop well short of predicting a major title for Jeff Overton within the next two years, analyzing the All-Around Ranking for players whose results didn’t match their underlying performance is a tried and true method for unearthing fantasy golf sleepers, and Overton is this year’s poster child. He finished third in that stat in 2007, which translated into a mediocre three top-10 finishes and just over $1 million in earnings. You’ve probably never heard of Overton and you may get a few chuckles after calling out his name on fantasy draft day, but there’s a great chance you’ll get the last laugh when the two-time All American out of Indiana becomes a household name this year.
Charles Warren
Warren can hit it long and he can hit it straight… as long as he’s got the driver in his hand. In three mostly ineffective seasons on Tour, Warren hasn’t finished worse than 10th in Total Driving, a stat that combines Driving Distance with Driving Accuracy. He’s finished third or better in that category twice, including a first-place finish in 2007. He also placed 14th in Greens in Regulation, ninth in Birdie Average, and 10th in All-Around, yet he managed a meager 91st-place finish on the money list. The problem has been a downright Happy Gilmore-like putter. In three seasons, Warren’s best finish in Putting Average was 113th in 2005. Things got so bad, Warren threw in the towel and grabbed a belly putter prior to the Reno-Tahoe open last August. Lo and behold, he tied for second place with the over-sized stick, then went on to card two other top-15 finishes in his final seven events. He was still a tad inconsistent on the short stuff, but with an offseason of further work with the long mallet, I’m willing to bet he’ll improve enough to make good on his otherwise rock-solid skillset.
