Less is More for Stenson?

Henrik Stenson has opted to curtail his schedule in 2008 in an effort to be more well-prepared for major tournaments. Stenson will relinquish his membership on the PGA Tour (which requires players to play at least 15 PGA events each season) and will cut back on the number of tournaments he plays in all over the world.

“I’m not going to play as much in America in ‘08,” Stenson told Reuters UK. ”I played in 30 events (worldwide) in 2007 and I played 31 weeks in 2006. I’m trying to cut down a little bit on my schedule so I can get the number down to about 25 events.”

This news doesn’t come as a huge shock for fantasy owners who watched Stenson card just one top 10 in 14 events after his win at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship a year ago. That win was expected to vault the strapping Swede into the fantasy stratosphere, but instead he missed the cut at three of the four majors and bowed out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs after finishing no better than T52 in the first three events. Part of the problem for Stenson might be that his base of operations is Dubai, which isn’t exactly a hop, skip, and a jump from, well, anywhere – a fact which might be conducive to piling up frequent flier miles, but probably isn’t conducive to getting in a lot of quality practice time (or sleep, for that matter).

Stenson will play only four times in the U.S. – including this week’s Mercedes-Benz Championship – prior to the Masters, and is still scheduled to defend his WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship in late February. Based on his No. 16 spot in the World Rankings and his win last year, he would have had a spot on most fantasy golf cheatsheets for 2008, but this news means fantasy owners shouldn’t bother wasting an everyday roster spot on him. He may make an impact at some of the WGC events and majors, but I’ll personally have to see him improve his play at the marquee events before I’d consider using him over a more established performer.

Scott Won’t Play ‘Til February

Adam Scott won’t tee it up in the United States until mid-February, and his representatives disputed a recent report that attributed his withdrawal from this weekend’s festivities in Hawaii to exhaustion. Scott reportedly won’t play on the PGA Tour until the Northern Trust Open (previously the Nissan Open) on February 14 as he focuses instead on overseas events such as the Abu Dhabi Championship, which Scott will play on January 17th.

My initial reaction to this news was that it seemed like a big deal for a player who has only played 19 events on the U.S. Tour in each of the last three seasons, but the reality is that he’s generally only played once or twice before Riviera anyways – usually at one or both of the season-opening Hawaii events.

Upon further reflection, the bigger news from the same report on golfchannel.com is that Scott is trying to focus more on contending at major championships this season (then again, aren’t we all?). That’s all fine and dandy, but is teeing it up (and cashing in on lucrative appearance fees) in the Middle East really a better way of preparing for majors than, say, heading to the Buick Invitational for a little practice at Torrey Pines (which just so happens to also be this year’s U.S. Open venue) at the Buick Invitational in late January?

As noted, I don’t think Scott skipping what amounts to one significant tournament (since most fantasy golf leagues don’t include the limited-field Mercedes-Benz Championships) that he usually plays in should detract significantly from his fantasy value – he’s still a threat to win every time he tees it up and will almost certainly rank as one of the top 10 fantasy golfers by the end of the year.

2008 Fantasy PGA Golf Sleepers – Part III

In the third and final installment of my fantasy golf sleepers series, I’ll take a look at a handful of players who are PGA Tour regulars that have a chance to exceed their perceived value – whether in a fantasy or rotisserie draft league or in a salary cap-style online league.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out Part I and Part II, which dealt with deeper sleepers who weren’t on the PGA Tour a year ago.

Camilo Villegas
With his long, curly locks, tight-fitting pants, white belt, and dramatic flair, Villegas has already captured the attention of the metrosexuals at GQ and the hearts of teenaged girls everywhere, but he has yet to truly prove himself on the golf course. Statistically, he’s been nothing special over his first two seasons on Tour, but it’s Camilo’s late-season 2007 run that has me excited about him in 2008. After a typically inconsistent half-year (dotted with a runner-up finish at the Honda Classic in March, a T3 at the AT&T in May, and absolutely nothing in between), however, Camilo appeared to put it together late in the year. Starting with the Canadian Open in July, Villegas caught fire. He didn’t drop out of the top 25 in his final six events, a span that also saw him log four top-10 finishes – including three in a row during the FedEx Cup playoffs. He kept the momentum going with a victory in September at the Tokai Classic on the Japan Golf Tour, which should give him loads of confidence heading into 2008. Villegas has already come close to winning on the PGA circuit several times (he has three runner-up finishes and two thirds in his two pro seasons), and it says here he wins at least once while establishing himself as a star on Tour this season.

Anthony Kim
Despite being the youngest rookie on Tour at age 22, carding four top-10 finishes, 10 top 25s, and earning over $1.5 million in cash, Kim was a mild disappointment a year ago. That’s probably being tough on the youngster, but Kim came out of Oklahoma with three-time All America credentials and made an immediate impact late in 2006 by tying for second in his first professional tournament, so expectations were sky high. Sleeper-seeking owners might have expected a win a year ago, which Kim obviously didn’t deliver, but behind the so-so results was a very effective season for the rookie. Granted, all four of his top 10s came before the Players Championship, but Anthony missed the cut just twice in his final 13 events and, more impressively, finished 13th on Tour in Birdie Average, 28th in Scoring, 29th in Total Driving, and 15th in the All-Around Ranking. Basically, his underlying play was far better than his results. I fully expect that to change in Year 2, and it wouldn’t shock me if Kim won a couple of times this season.

Ryan Moore
I simply can’t stop backing Moore. I’ve been on him like stink on a monkey ever since he came out of UNLV three years ago as the most decorated amateur player since Tiger fist-pumped his way onto the Tour in 1996. Since turning pro after the U.S. Open in 2005, we’ve seen only flashes of the talent everyone agrees Moore possesses. All that remains is for him to put it all together on a more consistent level, which I clearly believe will happen this season. Put it this way – Moore is going to explode at some point or another, and I want him on my fantasy squad when it happens. Now, about that goofy, trendy cap…

Jeff Overton
In 2004, a relatively unknown player finished first in the PGA Tour’s All-Around Ranking – which is a combination of several other statistical categories that measures, as the name would indicate, a player’s all-around skill. Said player earned just four top-10 finishes and finished a distant 61st on the money list. The following season, he won his first PGA Tour en route to earning nearly $2 million. The year after that, Geoff Ogilvy won the Accenture Match Play title before taking the U.S. Open in dramatic fashion. While I’ll stop well short of predicting a major title for Jeff Overton within the next two years, analyzing the All-Around Ranking for players whose results didn’t match their underlying performance is a tried and true method for unearthing fantasy golf sleepers, and Overton is this year’s poster child. He finished third in that stat in 2007, which translated into a mediocre three top-10 finishes and just over $1 million in earnings. You’ve probably never heard of Overton and you may get a few chuckles after calling out his name on fantasy draft day, but there’s a great chance you’ll get the last laugh when the two-time All American out of Indiana becomes a household name this year.

Charles Warren
Warren can hit it long and he can hit it straight… as long as he’s got the driver in his hand. In three mostly ineffective seasons on Tour, Warren hasn’t finished worse than 10th in Total Driving, a stat that combines Driving Distance with Driving Accuracy. He’s finished third or better in that category twice, including a first-place finish in 2007. He also placed 14th in Greens in Regulation, ninth in Birdie Average, and 10th in All-Around, yet he managed a meager 91st-place finish on the money list. The problem has been a downright Happy Gilmore-like putter. In three seasons, Warren’s best finish in Putting Average was 113th in 2005. Things got so bad, Warren threw in the towel and grabbed a belly putter prior to the Reno-Tahoe open last August. Lo and behold, he tied for second place with the over-sized stick, then went on to card two other top-15 finishes in his final seven events. He was still a tad inconsistent on the short stuff, but with an offseason of further work with the long mallet, I’m willing to bet he’ll improve enough to make good on his otherwise rock-solid skillset.

Mercedes-Benz Championship Fantasy Primer

For those who are starting their fantasy leagues right away with the limited-field Mercedes-Benz Championship, feel free to check out my fantasy primer over at Fanball.com.

2008 Fantasy PGA Golf Sleepers – Part II

My look at sleepers for the 2008 PGA Tour fantasy golf continues with a group of players who will be playing on Tour thanks to enduring the pressure-packed Q-School in early December.

First, a caveat: Q-School grads rarely make a huge impact on Tour immediately. There’s almost always an occasional winner who came out of Q-School (see McNeill, George – who was awful all season outside of two tournaments, one of which happened to be a victory in October long after the Tour’s best players began their offseason vacations). So, the following players should be considered deep sleepers with a chance at playing well at – and perhaps winning – an event or two, but are unlikely to be consistent competitors week-in and week-out.

Brett Rumford
Most people will see that Frank Lickliter won the Qualifying Tournament and secured the second-lowest score in history, but Rumford – the runner-up – is a far more attractive fantasy candidate. No, he hasn’t endured 13 seasons of mediocrity on the PGA Tour like Lickliter has, but after winning the Omega European Masters in September, the 30-year-old Aussie is exempt on the Euro circuit through 2009, so he opted to come to the States for the first time. He successfully passed the Q-School test and, as a three-time winner on the European Tour, he obviously knows how to win tournaments. Look for an adjustment period early on, but we should hear from Rumford at some point this season.

Yong-Eun Yang
Yang earned his card for the first time with a steady 20-under total that left him tied for sixth at the end of the Qualifying Tournament. If you vaguely remember seeing Yang’s name in the past, congratulations – you’ve been paying close attention. If not, allow me to remind you that it was one Yong-Eun Yang that defeated a host of stars including Tiger Woods at the 2006 HSBC Champions event on the Asian Tour. The four-time Japanese Tour winner finished inside the top 10 on that Tour three straight years and tied for 30th at the Masters a year ago. The 35-year-old is an experienced player who already ranks 94th on the Official World Golf Rankings – just behind the likes of Steve Flesch, Kenny Perry, and Chad Campbell, and ahead of well-known fantasy names like Nathan Green, Vaughn Taylor, and Troy Matteson.

Chris Stroud
The 25-year-old made a late run at keeping his Tour card the easy way when he carded three finishes of T12 or better in his final six Fall Series events a year ago, but that wasn’t quite enough to avoid Q-School. Not to worry – Stroud finished third at the Qualifying Tournament and is back for his second go-around. A T5 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal start to his rookie year in 2007, but that and his late run during the Fall Series proves he has the ability to contend. With his late-season confidence boost and his performance at Q-School, the two-time All-America selection out of little-known Lamar University is poised to make a lot more noise on Tour in his sophomore season.

See Also: 2008 Fantasy Golf Sleepers – Part I (Nationwide Tour Grads)

Part III coming later this week… Happy New Year!

Casey Properly… Loves America?

Paul Casey is coming to America… again. You’ll recall the difficulties he had two years ago when an ill-timed remark about “properly hating” Americans during the 2004 Ryder Cup made him the most hated Brit this side of Colin Montgomerie. He claimed he was going to play full time in the States in 2005, but after four missed cuts and zero top-10s in his first six events, he tucked tail and played in only four more U.S. PGA events that season. He again spent last year in blissful anonymity amongst his fellow Europeans, but has now decided he needs to play in the U.S. full time to take his game to the next level.

“I want to play against Tiger (Woods), (Jim) Furyk and (Phil) Mickelson week in and week out,” he said. “I’ve got to test myself against those guys all the time. I want to win a major, at least one. And I think in order to raise my game, I’ve got to be here all the time.”

This is fantastic news for fantasy hackers. Casey ranks 21st in the Official World Golf Rankings and is generally regarded as one of the best young players in the game. In just 10 events a year ago, Casey carded four top-10 finishes on this side of the pond and played well enough across the Atlantic to finish 13th on the European Tour Order of Merit. It’s always tough to tell what, exactly, “full-time” means for professional golfers – my guess is he may play as many as 20 events, but not more – but Casey immediately became a top-notch fantasy sleeper the minute he announced his intention to challenge the American stars. In fact, I’m so excited about the possibilities here I’ve already moved him into the top 20 on my preseason cheat sheet.

2008 Fantasy PGA Golf Sleepers – Part I

I won’t get cute here. You know what a sleeper is, I know what a sleeper is, I know that you know what a sleeper is. Hence, let’s get started and check out some players you either don’t know about who might make an impact in 2008, or players you already know who might significantly exceed expectations.

Let’s start with a look at a handful of players who graduated from the Nationwide Tour to the Big Show this season.

Jason Day
Day, who has gotten so much pub recently that he only barely qualifies as a sleeper, was a decorated amateur in Australia before plying his trade a year ago on the Nationwide Tour. There, he became the youngest player ever to win a PGA-sanctioned event (yes, younger than Tiger) when he took the Legend Financial Group Classic Presented by Cynergies Solutions Niner Yadda Yadda Yadda in July. He followed that with three more top-five finishes in the next four events. His stated goal is to win twice on the pgatour this year (yes, just like Tiger), and everyone from fans to swing coaches to experts to yours truly has a serious crush on him. The kid can pound it off the tee, owns a deft short game, and can roll it in the cup on the short stuff. The only question is how much a wrist injury that befell him late last year will hamper him.

Nick Flanagan
Surprise, surprise – another Aussie. Flanagan would have been a shoe-in to lead the Nationwide circuit money list, only he was too good to stay on said Tour all season long. After winning his third Nationwide event of the season in August, Flanagan got a so-called “battlefield promotion” to the big leagues. He had to wait out the FedEx Cup Playoffs for a few weeks, then carded top-20 finishes in each of his first two events before finally running out of gas in October. The former U.S. Amateur champion has the game to thrive on Tour, and a victory in 2008 wouldn’t be surprising.

Richard Johnson
Troy Matteson, Zach Johnson, and Chad Campbell are among those who won the Nationwide Tour money title and went on to big things the following season on Tour. I’ll freely admit that I know next to nothing about Richard Johnson (I do know not to confuse him with “Little Richard” Johnson, the diminutive Swede who hasn’t amounted to much over the last several seasons on Tour), but the fact that he carded eight top-10 finishes and won two of his final four events a year ago is more than enough to convince me that he should factor into things one or way or another next year. Often, PGA Tour rookies are wildly inconsistent, but if you can catch them on a hot streak you can ride them for a month or more. I don’t know when that will happen for Johnson, but I’d be willing to bet that it will.

Jon Mills
Mills was having a solid campaign on the Nationwide circuit a year ago, then turned it into a great showing when he won the Albertsons Boise Open in late September, then followed that with three more top-10 finishes in his next four events. The Canadian native ranked second on the Nationwide Tour in All-Around ranking and third in scoring average, which may not impress you that much until you consider that Boo Weekley ranked first and fourth in those same categories in 2006, and he had a pretty amazing season last year. Also like Weekley, this will be Mills’ second season as a full-timer with the big boys, and his previous experience should suit him well.

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For more 2008 fantasy PGA golf sleepers, see Part II and Part III of the series.

Immelman Undergoes Surgery

Trevor Immelman underwent surgery to remove a growth from his diaphragm last week. Immelman came down sick during the South African Airways Open, and testing revealed the presence of a benign tumor on his diaphragm.

He is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks of action, but this news certainly isn’t good for Immelman’s fantasy prognosis. It was a mysterious injury in April of last season that sidelined Immelman for over a month and sapped much of his strength for another three months; that is, assuming we can attribute his four missed cuts and inability to card a single top 10 between the Masters and the PGA Tournament on his health issues. I’m not a doctor, but it seems like having surgery to remove a tumor from your diaphragm might hamper one’s ability to a) breath, b) maintain strength, and c) practice your golf swing. I was fully expecting a huge bounce back season from Immelman this year (especially after he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in December), but now I’m not so sure.

Welcome to Fantasy Golf Weekly

Welcome to the Fantasy Golf Weekly blog. I have been writing about fantasy sports in general – and golf specifically, since 2004 for Fanball.com, one of the largest fantasy-only websites in the world. There aren’t a lot of us fantasy golf “experts,” but I have been recognized as one of the best; most recently as the champion of the 2007 pgatour.com experts rotisserie golf league. Above and beyond my qualifications as a writer and fantasy golf analyst, I am an avid golfer, fan, and I have participated in, and have familiarity with, just about every fantasy golf game on (and off) the internet.

Fantasy golf is just one tiny corner of the enormous fantasy sports universe, but I’ve found that its practitioners are both very passionate and very interested in digesting in-depth analysis and advice. To that end, my goal in this blog is to provide useful and entertaining advice on a weekly basis – from weekly previews and rankings to commentary about a specific player or trend. Feel free to ask questions or comments about what you like and/or don’t like.

-Christian Peterson